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Retail measurementField note

Informal retail is not a rounding error in commercial planning.

Ignoring fragmented trade can distort distribution, pricing and expansion decisions.

Maverick ResearchJuly 21, 20265 min read

Executive takeaway

Retail measurement should reflect how the category is actually bought, including the fragmented channels that materially shape access.

The blind spot

In many African markets, informal and fragmented retail remain central to how products are discovered, purchased and replenished.

A planning model built primarily around formal retail can therefore misread market access, competitive intensity and route-to-market performance.

What incomplete coverage can distort

The issue is not simply missing outlet counts. It affects the commercial interpretation of the market.

  • Distribution may appear weaker or stronger than it is.
  • Price variation may be underestimated.
  • High-potential neighbourhoods may be overlooked.
  • Execution problems may be attributed to demand rather than availability.

A better measurement approach

Retail measurement should be designed around the way the category is actually bought. That may require outlet classification, city-specific sampling, channel weighting and direct field validation.

The goal is not to measure every outlet. It is to build a defensible view of the channels that materially shape the decision.